In a bold departure from traditional Bitcoin market theories, Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, has declared that the longstanding four-year halving cycle is no longer relevant. Speaking via a video on X (formerly Twitter) on Friday, Hougan suggested that 2026 could be a breakout year for Bitcoin (BTC), with positive macro and institutional forces set to overpower historical price patterns.
“I bet 2026 is an up year,” said Hougan. “We’re in for a good few years.”
This outlook contrasts sharply with analysts who still anticipate a price peak within the next few months, closely tied to the recent April 2024 halving.
Why the Four-Year Cycle May No Longer Matter
Hougan attributed his shift in perspective to several macro and industry-specific developments:
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Bitcoin halvings are losing impact, becoming “half as important” every four years due to diminishing supply shocks.
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Interest rate trends are now favoring crypto, as former President Donald Trump has been pressuring the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut rates. Lower interest rates typically prompt investors to shift away from bonds and toward higher-risk assets, such as Bitcoin.
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Institutional adoption and regulatory clarity are steadily reducing volatility and the likelihood of major market blow-ups.
“Blow-up risk is attenuated, due to improving regulation and institutionalization of the space,” added Hougan.
He believes that Bitcoin’s price behavior will increasingly resemble a steady and sustained boom rather than the dramatic cyclical spikes of the past.
Institutional Forces Now Drive the Market
The rise of Bitcoin treasury firms is another factor Hougan flagged as significant. These firms are accumulating Bitcoin for corporate balance sheets, issuing new stock or taking on debt to do so — a trend that asset manager VanEck has also warned could backfire if the market turns bearish.
VanEck has raised concerns about overextension among these companies, suggesting they are vulnerable in the event of a significant Bitcoin price correction.
CryptoQuant and Rekt Capital Disagree on Cycle’s Fate
The “death of the cycle” narrative isn’t without its critics or supporters. Earlier this week, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju echoed Hougan’s sentiment, admitting that the traditional four-year pattern no longer holds.
“Last cycle, whales sold to retail. This time, old whales sell to new long-term whales. Institutional adoption is bigger than we thought,” Ju explained.
On the other hand, popular crypto analyst Rekt Capital maintains that the historical pattern remains intact. According to him, if Bitcoin follows the 2020 cycle, it may peak around October 2025, approximately 550 days after the halving.
A New Era for Bitcoin?
Whether 2026 becomes the defining year for Bitcoin’s next bull run or not, one thing is clear: the market is evolving. As institutional forces, regulatory clarity, and macro trends take center stage, the four-year halving narrative may indeed be fading — making room for a more mature, long-term market behavior.
For now, Matt Hougan’s bold call on 2026 challenges conventional wisdom and adds a fresh perspective for both retail and institutional investors navigating the crypto landscape.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are volatile and risky. Always conduct your research before making any investment decisions.
