Bitcoin (BTC) climbed near its all-time high this Wednesday, touching $109,700 after bouncing back from the $105,200 support level. The move came as the eurozone’s money supply showed fresh signs of expansion and weak labor market data emerged from the United States.
Despite the price now hovering just 2% below Bitcoin’s record high of $111,970, professional traders appear hesitant to call this a sustainable breakout. According to the latest BTC derivatives data, the rally’s strength is still in question.
Futures Premium Shows Caution
One key signal is the Bitcoin futures premium, which remained under the 5% neutral threshold on Wednesday. While the premium nudged up from 4% on Monday, it remains far below levels that typically reflect strong bullish conviction.
This cautious trend has held since mid-June when the indicator last approached bullish territory during Bitcoin’s earlier attempt to breach $110,000. The tepid demand for leveraged long positions suggests that traders are still wary of macroeconomic risks.
Eurozone Liquidity and US Jobs Weakness Drive Volatility
Some analysts point to the eurozone’s record-high M2 money supply, which grew 2.7% year-over-year in April, as a potential factor behind the recent BTC spike. Combined with the latest ADP report showing US private payrolls fell by 33,000 in June, liquidity concerns and signs of a cooling labor market are driving safe-haven interest.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff threats on Japanese imports are stoking trade war fears. Trump signaled he may raise tariffs above 30% if no deal is struck by July 9. In response, EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič has been tasked by eurozone ambassadors to negotiate a tougher line with Washington, although there is still disagreement across European capitals on possible retaliation.
Options Markets Show Neutral Risk Sentiment
Examining the BTC options market paints a clearer picture. If traders were bracing for a sharp correction, the 25% delta skew would spike above 6% as demand for protective put options increased. However, the metric remains flat at 0% — the same level as two days ago — signaling that traders see balanced risk either way.
This neutral stance suggests that while traders are not overly bearish, they are also not convinced Bitcoin will hold above its recent highs without a clear catalyst.
Weak Stablecoin Demand in China Adds Pressure
Another red flag is China’s Tether (USDT) discount, which has widened to 1% below the US dollar peg — the largest drop since mid-May. This means crypto investors in China are pulling capital out of digital assets rather than piling in, undermining confidence in the rally’s staying power.
Tuesday’s net outflows of $342 million from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) only added to the cautious mood among institutional players.
Traders Watch Macro Signals
With a soft futures premium, flat options sentiment, and a weak stablecoin premium in China, Bitcoin’s push towards its all-time high could face more headwinds if macroeconomic uncertainties persist.
Whether BTC can convincingly break and hold above the $110,000 level will likely depend on new economic data, trade war developments, and sustained institutional inflows.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are volatile and risky. Always conduct your research before making any investment decisions.
