Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, is holding firmly to his extreme prediction that Bitcoin could still hit $200,000–$250,000 by the end of 2025.
Speaking on the Milk Road Show on November 26, he argued that the recent crash to $80,000 marked the cycle bottom and confirmed that the macro liquidity outlook is now shifting in Bitcoin’s favor.
Despite the volatility seen through October and November, Hayes said he remains fully confident in his long-term target.
“I’m going to stick with it,” he said. “If I’m wrong it doesn’t matter… I’m long, I’m still happy either way.”
Hayes Says $80K Was the “True Bottom” After Liquidity Shock
Hayes explained that the entire drop from Bitcoin’s $125,000 peak to the $80,000 low was simply a reaction to a global liquidity squeeze rather than a structural bear market.
He pointed to his dollar liquidity index, based on Bloomberg data, showing about $1 trillion drained from money markets since July.
This liquidity drain stemmed from:
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The U.S. Treasury is rebuilding its cash reserves
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The Federal Reserve is maintaining quantitative tightening
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Declines in institutional flows mask overall tightness
According to Hayes, Bitcoin initially ignored these signals because ETF inflows and Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) issuances temporarily offset the liquidity crunch. Once those flows reversed, Bitcoin corrected sharply to align with real monetary conditions.
ETF Flows Were Misread — “It Was Just a Basis Trade”
Hayes warned that retail traders misinterpreted ETF inflows as a sign of bullish institutional conviction.
He revealed that major IBIT ETF holders—including Brevan Howard, Goldman Sachs, Millennium, Jane Street, and Avenue—were not long-term spot buyers, but basis traders profiting from a spread between ETF shares and futures contracts.
“They buy the ETF, pledge it, short futures and earn 7 to 10 percent annually,” Hayes said.
When funding rates fell in September and October, these traders unwound the strategy, causing ETF outflows that retail incorrectly viewed as institutional dumping.
Digital Asset Treasuries Also Lost Their Edge
DAT companies, which issue stock and debt to buy Bitcoin when trading at a premium to NAV, also contributed to the downward pressure.
As their valuations fell back to par or discount, they could no longer issue new securities profitably — and in some cases had incentives to sell Bitcoin and repurchase their own shares.
Hayes argued that these combined unwinds simply reflected the tightening liquidity cycle, not a fundamental shift in Bitcoin’s long-term outlook.
Why Bitcoin Is Stuck Around $90K
When asked why Bitcoin remains range-bound near $90,000, Hayes said markets are waiting for real confirmation that the new U.S. administration will unleash another wave of liquidity.
He highlighted that discussions of:
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aggressive bank lending
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a new industrial stimulus strategy
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a potential shift in Federal Reserve leadership
are still political promises rather than implemented programs.
Markets need clarity on how the next “$10 trillion” in liquidity will be deployed, Hayes said.
Once tangible policy actions begin, he expects Bitcoin to accelerate sharply.
“We have essentially bottomed on the liquidity chart,” Hayes concluded. “The direction from here is higher.”
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are volatile and risky. Always conduct your research before making any investment decisions
