A wave of relief swept across digital asset markets this week, pulling major altcoins out of their recent slump. Bitcoin successfully reclaimed the $63,000 threshold, while Ethereum pushed back above $1,800.
Riding this broader crypto market recovery, XRP bounced from its local lows near $1.01, recently changing hands at approximately $1.15.
While the upward price action injected much-needed optimism into investor sentiment, market dynamics suggest this bounce might be a temporary reprieve. When assets move higher in a straight line, momentum indicators often become overheated and require stabilization.
This latest rebound is allowing the market to reset those indicators and gradually exhaust lingering selling pressure, creating the foundation for a more sustainable bottoming process rather than an immediate bull run.
The $1.18 Wall and Synchronized Rejections
Despite the positive momentum, XRP encountered a formidable barrier at the $1.18 resistance level. Buyers initially showed strength during the approach, but the rally quickly lost steam as sellers aggressively stepped in to defend the zone.
This sharp rejection was not an isolated event. Bitcoin experienced a nearly identical technical hurdle around the exact same time.
BTC climbed toward its macro 0.5 Fibonacci retracement near $64,000 before facing intense sell pressure. This synchronized rejection across major crypto assets signals that heavy overhead supply remains a significant obstacle. Buyers still have substantial work to do before a broader market breakout can materialize.
Why One Analyst Targets $0.87
According to a July 6 XRP price analysis by prominent market commentator CasiTrades, the current price action aligns perfectly with how healthy, long-term corrections typically unfold.
Looking at the four-hour chart, the analyst identified an ongoing corrective Elliott Wave pattern. This specific structure implies the market is currently navigating the final, choppy stages of a broader correction, rather than kicking off a new impulsive upward trend.
Her primary downside target rests at the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, located around $0.87. While a drop to this level might seem severe given the recent recovery, the prevailing wave count supports the probability of one final shakeout to gather liquidity before the correction fully concludes.
Momentum data backs up this cautious stance. After XRP was rejected at $1.18, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) began to roll over. The RSI has now retreated toward the mid-40s after previously spiking above 60, confirming that bullish momentum has cooled significantly and sellers are regaining temporary footing.
Crucial Support and Invalidation Levels
If XRP begins to slide toward that $0.87 target, it will first need to break through several heavily defended support zones.
The immediate floor sits at $1.09, followed closely by the psychological stronghold at $1.00. Market participants expect fierce battles between buyers and sellers at these specific liquidity zones. However, unless overhead resistance is broken first, the path of least resistance technically points downward.
This bearish thesis is not absolute. If XRP manages to establish $1.09 as firm support and subsequently breaks through the $1.18 resistance with strong trading volume, the downside scenario weakens considerably.
An even more decisive breakout above $1.30 would likely invalidate the $0.87 target completely, signaling that the macroeconomic correction has already run its course.
As the summer trading months continue, whether XRP reclaims $1.30 or cascades down to $0.87 will likely set the tone for the token’s trajectory heading into the rest of the year.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are volatile and risky. Always conduct your research before making any investment decisions.
