Veteran trader Peter Brandt believes Bitcoin’s path to $200,000 will take far longer than many crypto executives anticipate. In an X post published Thursday, Brandt said he does not expect Bitcoin to touch the $200K milestone by the end of this year or anytime soon. Instead, he predicts the next major bull market will lift Bitcoin to around $200,000 in Q3 2029.
Brandt emphasized that he remains a “long-term bull on Bitcoin,” but warned that expectations of rapid gains are unrealistic. His projection stands in stark contrast to bullish calls made by major industry leaders such as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and BitMine chair Tom Lee, both of whom reaffirmed in October their belief that Bitcoin would surpass $200,000 before year-end.
The trader’s long-term outlook also sharply differs from forecasts by Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood, who both estimate Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030. Brandt expects Bitcoin to be significantly lower — roughly one-fifth of that price — just one quarter earlier.
Bitcoin has struggled since reaching a new all-time high of $125,100 on Oct. 5, sliding steadily amid wider market pressure. On Wednesday, Bitcoin dropped to $88,000, and despite a brief uptick, the price continued to correct, trading near $86,870 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap.
Despite the downturn, Brandt sees the ongoing market reset as constructive rather than damaging. “This dumping is the best thing that could happen to Bitcoin,” he wrote. Analysts across the sector have echoed this sentiment, noting that historical shakeouts often precede strong upside cycles.
Brandt previously compared Bitcoin’s chart structure to the 1970s soybean market, which experienced a sharp decline after a major peak. He highlighted how soybeans fell 50 percent once global supply exceeded demand, warning that similar dynamics can emerge in overheated crypto markets.
Meanwhile, institutional activity continues to play a major role in Bitcoin’s price movement. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, said Bitcoin has “never seen this much institutional selling as a percentage of Coinbase volume in all history,” highlighting a significant shift in market behavior.
Even with growing pessimism among some investors, long-term analysts maintain that structural resets are crucial for sustainable upside. Brandt’s timeline suggests that while short-term volatility may continue, Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory remains firmly upward, albeit slower than the industry’s most aggressive predictions.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are volatile and risky. Always conduct your research before making any investment decisions
