After a promising rally in late March, Toncoin (TON) has taken a sharp bearish turn. What once appeared to be a breakout above the $3.95 resistance has now reversed into a significant correction, with TON dropping 32% in just five days.
The decline began following a surge in whale activity in early April. Combined with a spike in daily transactions, this sudden movement raised red flags across the market. Rather than fueling a bullish breakout, the surge appeared to coincide with large-scale selling pressure.
Key On-Chain Metrics Flash Bearish Signals
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), a crucial on-chain metric used to determine whether assets are being sold at a profit or loss, had shown a short-lived bounce above 1 toward the end of March—indicating coins were being sold at a profit. However, that bullish signal quickly faded as SOPR dipped below 1, confirming a market-wide shift to selling at a loss.
Adding to the concerns is the HODLer Net Position Change, which tracks monthly changes in long-term holder behavior. While February and March saw some accumulation despite a price dip, recent data indicates a clear transition to distribution, reinforcing the narrative of weakening bullish sentiment.
CMF Indicator, Price Action Confirm Downward Momentum
Toncoin’s bullish structure officially broke on March 27, when the price surpassed the lower high at $3.95, supported by a positive Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) value above +0.05, signaling capital inflows. But the trend has since reversed.
As of writing, TON has failed to hold the $3.5 support zone, with CMF plunging to -0.14, confirming strong capital outflows and intensified sell pressure. The technical structure, combined with whale-led distribution and bearish on-chain metrics, paints a grim short-term outlook for Toncoin.
Investors Eye the Next Support Levels
The rapid sell-off has now put TON in a fragile position, with market participants closely monitoring lower support levels. If bearish momentum persists, a drop toward the $3.2 or even $3.0 region could be on the table.
Unless a reversal in SOPR, CMF, and accumulation metrics is observed soon, the Toncoin market might continue to face heightened volatility and downward pressure in the days ahead.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are volatile and risky. Always conduct your research before making any investment decisions.
