Bitcoin’s price action in 2025 has been frustrating for many investors. Sideways movement, declining sentiment, and unmet six-figure predictions have led to growing doubts about the market’s direction. But beneath the surface, a different interpretation is gaining traction among seasoned Bitcoin thinkers.
According to Jan3 founder Samson Mow, the past year was not a continuation of a bull cycle at all, it was the bear market itself. In his view, Bitcoin may now be transitioning into a structural bull phase that could extend well into the next decade.
This perspective challenges the popular four-year cycle model and reframes 2025 not as a failure, but as a necessary reset.
Why calling 2025 a bear market matters
Bitcoin is down roughly 9 percent year to date and is on track to close the year below its opening price. Historically, Bitcoin has never produced two consecutive red yearly candles. That fact alone has caught the attention of analysts like PlanC, who argues that surviving 2025 may already mean the worst is over.
Rather than focusing on price targets that were missed, this framework looks at market behavior. Prolonged fear, declining retail participation, and compressed volatility are all hallmarks of late-stage bear markets. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index spending weeks in extreme fear territory supports that interpretation.
From an on-chain and macro perspective, this kind of pessimism has often preceded major long-term uptrends.
The split outlook for 2026
Not everyone agrees that brighter days are immediately ahead. Veteran traders like Peter Brandt warn that Bitcoin could revisit the $60,000 range by late 2026. Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer has suggested that the coming year could be a consolidation phase, with Bitcoin taking time to rebuild momentum.
These views are not necessarily incompatible with a long-term bull thesis. Extended bull markets rarely move in straight lines. Pullbacks, pauses, and even sharp corrections are common within larger structural uptrends.
On the other side of the debate, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan believes 2026 could still be a positive year, driven by increasing institutional exposure, ETF-related capital flows, and Bitcoin’s growing role as a macro asset rather than a speculative trade.
Fundamentals versus sentiment
What makes this moment particularly important is the divergence between fundamentals and sentiment. Despite weak price action, Bitcoin’s network security remains strong, long-term holders continue to accumulate, and institutional infrastructure is more mature than at any point in previous cycles.
Strategy CEO Phong Le recently emphasized that Bitcoin’s core fundamentals did not deteriorate in 2025. Instead, sentiment collapsed while the underlying system continued to strengthen.
This gap between perception and reality has historically created opportunities for patient investors.
A longer cycle thesis
Samson Mow’s idea of a bull market lasting into the 2030s is not about short-term price predictions. It is about Bitcoin’s gradual transition into a global monetary asset. If Bitcoin adoption continues through sovereign reserves, corporate treasuries, and regulated financial products, its cycles may begin to resemble commodities or macro assets rather than speculative tech trades.
That shift would naturally stretch cycles, dampen extreme volatility, and extend periods of accumulation and growth.
What comes next
Whether Bitcoin rallies immediately or spends more time consolidating, 2025 may eventually be viewed as the year that flushed out unrealistic expectations. Instead of explosive upside driven by hype, the next phase could be defined by slower, more durable growth.
For long-term investors, this period is less about timing the bottom and more about understanding the structural forces shaping Bitcoin’s future.
If the bear market truly ended in 2025, history suggests the quiet years often precede the most meaningful moves.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are volatile and risky. Always conduct your research before making any investment decisions
