After hitting a weekend peak of $116,689 on September 15, Bitcoin (BTC) has slightly retraced, trading around $114,601 at press time, down 0.9% in the past 24 hours. Yet, new market data suggests that BTC may be gearing up for another bullish move.
According to CryptoQuant Quicktake analyst Arab Chain, the Bitcoin Scarcity Index just recorded its first spike since June 2025. The metric, based on Binance exchange data, measures the available supply of BTC relative to immediate buying demand.
Scarcity Index Signals Accumulation
A spike in the index indicates either a significant withdrawal of Bitcoin from exchanges or a decline in sell orders. Both scenarios point to stronger accumulation by large investors, often referred to as whales or sharks.
Arab Chain noted that such spikes often occur when immediate buying pressure exceeds available supply, reflecting intense demand. A similar pattern was observed in June, which eventually pushed BTC to highs of $124,000.
“The index jumps when immediate buying power exceeds available supply, as if buyers are racing to acquire Bitcoin on the market.”
If the Scarcity Index remains positive for several consecutive days, it could confirm a strong accumulation phase and support the continuation of Bitcoin’s uptrend. Conversely, if the index quickly reverses, it may signal speculative trading or liquidations, often followed by a correction.
Signs of Strength and Risks Ahead
In recent months, the Scarcity Index reached new all-time highs above +6, before retreating into neutral or negative zones. This volatility shows how quickly market sentiment can shift.
Despite short-term pullbacks, BTC continues to show strength. The cryptocurrency recently broke above the mid-term holder breakeven level, a historically bullish sign. Additionally, Bitcoin just flashed the Golden Cross, a rare technical indicator where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day average, often preceding strong rallies.
If these signals align with persistent scarcity, analysts suggest BTC could see another triple-digit percentage move, potentially doubling from current levels.
Still, risks remain. If Bitcoin fails to hold its $114,000–$112,000 support range, renewed selling could drag prices lower before another attempt at recovery.
Conclusion
The latest spike in the Bitcoin Scarcity Index highlights growing demand pressure as supply tightens. Whether this will trigger another rally depends on how long the metric stays positive and if institutional buyers continue accumulating.
At the time of writing, BTC trades at $114,601, with market participants closely monitoring exchange flows for confirmation of the next move.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are volatile and risky. Always conduct your research before making any investment decisions.
