Ripple’s native token, XRP may be preparing for another breakout run as its current price behavior mirrors the bullish Q4 cycle of previous years. Historically, XRP has demonstrated explosive moves during year-end trading, and recent on-chain data suggests that history could repeat itself.
During its last Q4 surge, XRP skyrocketed more than 290% from a $0.50 base, peaking near $2.80 in December before retracing to test $2 support. That cycle was driven by long-term holders (LTHs) securing profits, with realized gains exceeding $2 billion, marking a textbook distribution before consolidation.
Fast forward to the present, XRP recently hit a local top of $3.55 on July 24. At that level, profit-taking by LTHs surged to $375 million, triggering a sharp 10.33% intraday dip, the steepest red candle in over three months. This correction has XRP consolidating around the $3 support zone, which analysts view as a critical level for the next rally.
On-Chain Signals Point to Support Holding
Despite the sell-off, XRP demonstrated resilience. After dipping to $3, the token rebounded by 6.45% the following day, reinforcing the strength of its support wall. This mirrors the previous cycle when $2 flipped into support, igniting a 60% surge to $3.35 by mid-January.
LTH selling pressure indicates a classic distribution phase, while structural support appears intact. If this pattern holds, XRP could replay its historic Q4 setup, paving the way for another leg higher. Analysts suggest that under favorable market sentiment, Ripple’s token could target $5.40 by mid-Q1, representing an 80% upside potential from current levels.
Ripple’s Long-Term Holders and Market Sentiment
Long-term holders remain the key force behind XRP’s volatility. As seen in both past and present cycles, LTHs tend to exit positions once XRP approaches or surpasses their cost basis. However, the resilience of current support levels has renewed optimism among bulls.
Market watchers believe that if risk-on sentiment strengthens across the crypto space, XRP could be poised for a breakout similar to its November rally in prior years. With its consolidation phase nearing exhaustion, Ripple may be on the verge of its next major upward push.
