The Ripple [XRP] community is keenly anticipating the U.S. SEC appeal deadline on the 15th of January and its potential impact on the XRP ETF outlook.
In November, the agency requested an extension to submit its appeal by early January, a move some claimed was to wait for the outcome of the US elections.
Now, with the incoming pro-crypto Trump administration and Paul Atkins as SEC chair, some doubt whether the agency will go through with the appeal.
A former SEC lawyer, Marc Fagel, stated that the new regime could dismiss the appeal. He said,
“The appeal will continue for now, and that process takes about a year. But there is the possibility that a new administration decides to move to dismiss the appeal. That’s not something I recall happening before, but it’s possible and maybe likely.”
Is XRP ETF closer than most think?
The regulator could clarify XRP’s security status and accelerate its ETF approval chances if the appeal is dismissed. So far, the agency has only approved Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs because they are not deemed securities.
However, the market has remained hopeful that the new administration will approve several altcoin ETFs in 2025.
Already, there are SEC filings for US spot XRP ETF by issues like Bitwise, Canary Capital, Wisdom Tree and 21Shares.
In fact, as of this writing, prediction site Polymarket was pricing a 75% chance of an XRP ETF in 2025.
Even the current market positioning suggested that XRP holders expected an extra rally, perhaps driven by the potential ETF approval.
According to CryptoQuant, Korean-based Upbit, which has the largest XRP holdings, has declined from 6.6 billion to 6.0 billion tokens. This showed users opted to hold their tokens despite the 465% pump in November.
Interestingly, this was contrary to the 100% rally seen in July, which drove Upbit’s reserve from 1.6B to 6.7B tokens—A whopping +300% surge in sell pressure.
In short, XRP holders might be waiting for the ETF outcome or expected 2025 altcoin season. With experts projecting that ETF approval could push XRP above $5, the wait could be worthwhile.
