Traders expecting Bitcoin (BTC) to reach its cycle-high by the end of 2025 may be relying on flawed statistical assumptions, according to a leading crypto analyst.
In a post on X (formerly Twitter) on Friday, analyst PlanC argued that predictions of a Q4 price peak are misguided.
“Anyone who thinks Bitcoin has to peak in Q4 of this year does not understand statistics or probability,” PlanC wrote, comparing such forecasts to flipping a coin.
He explained, “From a statistical and probability standpoint, it is equivalent to flipping a coin and getting tails three times in a row, then betting all your money that the fourth flip MUST BE tails.”
No fundamental reason for a Q4 peak
PlanC dismissed the reliance on Bitcoin’s past halving cycles, noting that the market landscape has changed dramatically. With the rise of Bitcoin treasury companies and significant inflows into U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs, he argued that halving-driven cycles are less relevant today.
“There is zero fundamental reason — other than a psychological, self-fulfilling prophecy — for the peak to occur in Q4 2025,” he added.
Historically, Q4 has been Bitcoin’s best-performing quarter, averaging 85.42% returns since 2013, according to data from CoinGlass. However, analysts warn that if the halving pattern still holds some weight, BTC could start a downtrend as early as October.
Industry divided over Bitcoin’s bull market
The debate over Bitcoin’s trajectory continues to divide analysts and investors.
On August 17, Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, said there is a “greater than 50% chance Bitcoin goes to the $140,000 to $150,000 range this year before we see another bear market next year.”
Others believe the rally could extend beyond 2025. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of Bitwise, said in July, “I bet 2026 is an up year.”
Meanwhile, bold forecasts of Bitcoin hitting $250,000 this year remain. In April 2025, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, projected BTC could hit that mark. A month later, Joe Burnett, research director at Unchained, made the same call.
As of now, Bitcoin continues to trade with high volatility, and while historical patterns have shaped market expectations, experts stress that the next peak may not arrive in Q4 as many anticipate.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are volatile and risky. Always conduct your research before making any investment decisions.
