Glassnode’s James Check cautions that new Bitcoin treasury firms face shrinking opportunities as early adopters dominate the space.
In a sharp warning for companies eyeing Bitcoin as a treasury asset, crypto analyst James Check, lead analyst at Glassnode, says the Bitcoin treasury strategy may be running out of road for latecomers.
In a detailed post on X, Check said, “My instinct is the Bitcoin treasury strategy has a far shorter lifespan than most expect. For many new entrants, it could already be over.”
According to Check, the once-booming trend that made headlines with MicroStrategy’s huge Bitcoin buys is now maturing. He believes it will soon be tough for new firms to capture market momentum “without a serious niche.”
Early Movers Hold the Crown
Data from BitcoinTreasuries shows at least 21 entities added BTC to their balance sheets in the last month alone. But the numbers are telling Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) still dominates, holding 597,325 BTC, while the second largest, MARA Holdings, holds just 50,000 BTC, about one-twelfth of MSTR’s stack.
Check argues that new entrants risk becoming just another face in an overcrowded market. “Nobody wants the 50th Treasury company,” he added, predicting that retail investors won’t have “infinite money” to fund copycats forever.
Takeover Risks and a ‘Show Me’ Phase
Echoing this sentiment, Udi Wizardheimer, co-founder of Taproot Wizards, said some startups chasing Bitcoin treasury headlines “see easy money and have no idea what they’re doing.” Wizardheimer believes weaker companies will eventually be snapped up by stronger players looking to consolidate the space.
Even so, Check clarified that he’s bullish on Bitcoin’s price overall. BTC traded at $107,990 at press time, about 3.7% off its all-time high of $111,970, per CoinMarketCap data. But when it comes to treasury strategies, he expects the market to get more selective, describing it as a spectrum: “Strategy has more runway than the 300th Bitcoin treasury company.”
Copycats Could Backfire
Meanwhile, Fakhul Miah, managing director of GoMining Institutional, told Cointelegraph that poorly managed copycat firms pose bigger risks. “If these smaller firms crash, we could see a ripple effect that hurts Bitcoin’s image,” Miah warned.
Similarly, VC firm Breed argued in a recent report that only a handful of treasury firms will withstand the next shakeout, while others could spiral into trading near their net asset value, a dynamic that could trigger a “death spiral” for some Bitcoin-backed stocks.
As the Bitcoin price edges higher, eyes will be on how these companies adapt to a market that now demands more than just headline-grabbing buys.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are volatile and risky. Always conduct your research before making any investment decisions.
