Bitcoin (BTC) has staged a sharp recovery, surging above $104,000 in early trading hours following a temporary ceasefire announcement by President Donald Trump, signaling a reduction in geopolitical tensions that recently rattled global markets.
BTC is now trading firmly above the key $102,500 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average, after rebounding from last week’s intraday low of $98,277. The bounce has been supported by a decisive break above a bearish trendline resistance at $101,500, as per chart data from Kraken.
Ceasefire Spurs Risk-On Sentiment Across Markets
The ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran sent shockwaves through both crypto and equities last week, with Bitcoin tumbling below the $100,000 psychological level for the first time since May.
However, Trump’s ceasefire declaration over the weekend appears to have renewed optimism, leading to a shift toward risk assets. Bitcoin led the digital asset rebound, breaking past the $102,000 and $103,200 resistance zones before stalling near the $106,000 mark.
BTC Technical Setup: Key Resistance and Support Levels
Bitcoin is currently trading near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the decline from the $106,470 swing high to the $98,277 low, signaling strong buying interest. A close above the $106,500 resistance could trigger another leg up toward the $108,000 zone, with further gains opening the door to a potential rally toward $110,000.
Immediate resistance:
-
$106,000
-
$106,200
-
Key breakout level: $106,500
Support levels to watch:
-
$104,000
-
$103,500
-
$102,500
-
Critical support: $100,000
According to technical indicators, the hourly MACD is showing a slowdown in bullish momentum, while the hourly RSI remains comfortably above the neutral 50 level, suggesting the bullish trend could continue if no fresh risks emerge.
What Happens If BTC Fails to Break $106,500?
Failure to clear the $106,000–$106,500 resistance range could lead to renewed selling pressure. Analysts warn of potential downside risk toward $102,500, with a breach of the $100,000 support likely to accelerate losses.
However, market sentiment has turned cautiously optimistic as long as Bitcoin maintains its position above $102,500 in the short term.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s rebound comes as geopolitical tensions ease, offering a moment of relief for traders and investors. The market’s next focus will be whether BTC can decisively flip the $106,500 resistance, potentially resuming its march toward new highs.
The coming days could prove pivotal for Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory, especially as global macro conditions continue to evolve and U.S. monetary policy expectations remain fluid.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are volatile and risky. Always conduct your research before making any investment decisions.
