Ethereum is approaching one of the most important technical moments of its current market cycle. Despite the latest decline, large wallets are buying aggressively, even as analysts warn that ETH is sitting on its final major support before a potential steep decline.
At the same time, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee has released new valuation estimates for Ethereum, creating a wide range between bearish and bullish outcomes. His model now places ETH’s fair value anywhere between 12,000 and 62,500 depending on market conditions, adoption and long term ETH to BTC ratios.
These conflicting signals have created a rare moment where price structure, investor confidence and whale activity are moving in different directions.
Tom Lee’s Massive Valuation Range Has the Market Talking
Tom Lee’s updated model has become a central topic across analyst circles. According to his breakdown, Ethereum’s valuation depends heavily on where the ETH to BTC ratio stabilizes in the months ahead.
Key valuation points include:
• Around 12,000 if ETH continues to follow its long term ETH to BTC historical average
• Around 21,800 if the market eventually retests its 2021 ratio
• Up to 62,500 if Ethereum becomes a core settlement layer for global transactions
The range is unusually wide and reflects uncertainty in both market behavior and Ethereum’s long term economic role. It also contrasts sharply with the current price of roughly 2,800.
Whales Accumulate Over 21,000 ETH While Retail Sells
In one of the most notable moves of the week, a Bitmine linked address accumulated 21,537 ETH, valued at more than 59 million dollars, during the recent decline. The purchase was executed around the 2,750 level, a time when thousands of retail traders were selling out of fear.
This behavior mirrors the kind of strategic accumulation seen in Bitcoin markets, particularly during MicroStrategy’s buying periods.
Data shows that aggregated open interest is holding steady around 15.46 billion dollars. There is no signal of aggressive panic, forced liquidations or leveraged wipeouts. The market appears to be stabilizing even as the chart looks heavy.
Whales are showing confidence where the crowd is showing caution.
ETH ETF Outflows Turn Negative for the First Time in Months
Weekly data from SoSoValue now shows that Ethereum ETFs have registered around 500 million dollars in net outflows. This marks one of the largest reductions in ETF exposure in recent months.
Total net assets have pulled back from recent highs, indicating that regulated and institutional ETF holders are reducing risk while spot market whales continue to accumulate.
This mismatch between ETF behavior and direct spot buying reflects two different risk profiles. ETF investors appear to be responding to price weakness and macro factors, while whales are using declines as accumulation opportunities.
Ethereum Sits on Its Final Structural Support Level
The most critical factor now is price structure. Ethereum is resting directly above its last major support zone, the same region that supported the entire 2022 to 2025 consolidation range.
Historical patterns from 2016 to 2018 and 2018 to 2021 show that when ETH loses this level, price often falls quickly due to a lack of nearby support. Analysts call this moment the cliff because the chart has almost no safety levels below it.
Sellers are showing strength and volume is rising. The candle structure is weakening at the exact level where buyers need to defend. Sentiment across social platforms appears positive, but the chart does not reflect that confidence.
If this support breaks, the next meaningful level is much lower.
What Happens Next for Ethereum
Two sharply different scenarios are now forming:
If support holds:
Whale accumulation appears early and strategic, the Bitmine purchase becomes a strong signal, and long-term valuation models begin to look more realistic.
If support breaks:
ETF outflows, weakening structure, and the wide gap below the current price could accelerate downward pressure. The lack of support beneath this zone makes any breakdown potentially severe.
Ethereum is now at a turning point that will test not only its price but also the conviction of long-term holders.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are volatile and risky. Always conduct your research before making any investment decisions
