Solana (SOL) has remained one of the stronger performers in the crypto market, even amid choppy trading. At press time, Solana was priced just under $200 at $198, after slipping by more than 3% in the past 24 hours. Despite the dip, SOL has gained nearly 20% over the last 30 days, highlighting resilience ahead of September.
Historically, September has been kind to Solana, with an average monthly gain of around 2.4%. However, traders are now assessing whether the same trend will play out in 2025, given weaker spot demand and aggressive profit-taking.
Spot Demand Weakens, Profit-Taking Rises
On August 11, Solana’s weekly netflows showed a sharp $301 million in outflows, suggesting strong demand as buyers moved coins off exchanges. Since then, however, the number has reversed sharply, dropping to around -$77 million.
This decline indicates that whales who were previously accumulating are now slowing their activity. When fewer coins are pulled from exchanges, it often signals waning confidence or a wait for better entry points. For Solana, this erodes a key support factor.
Meanwhile, profit-taking has been significant. When SOL briefly crossed $210 in late August, investors realized nearly $1 billion in profits. Round numbers like $210 often act as resistance, as traders prefer to cash out at clear milestones. Breaking past such levels will require fresh demand.
Derivatives Market Heats Up
While spot demand cools, the derivatives market tells a different story. Solana’s futures open interest has surged to $12.5 billion, the highest in months, reflecting heavy leveraged activity.
High open interest paired with weaker spot buying usually fuels volatility. This environment often leads to sharp swings instead of steady upward trends.
Currently, Solana trades near $198, hovering just above an important support level at $196.8. If this level holds, bulls could aim to retest resistance at $208 and $217. A decisive break above $217 would open the door to the long-awaited $300 target.
On the downside, a daily close under $175 would invalidate the bullish outlook and hand control back to the bears.
September Outlook
The Money Flow Index sits at a neutral 54. A move above 60 is required to confirm stronger buying pressure. Until then, bulls remain vulnerable to quick reversals.
Some analysts point to Solana’s breakout from a triangle pattern in late August, suggesting that the path to $300 remains technically valid. However, September may not deliver the final breakout, given weaker spot demand and continued profit-taking.
If $196 holds and $217 breaks, Solana could surprise on the upside. If $175 fails, the bullish scenario toward $300 would be invalidated.
For now, Solana’s September outlook appears choppy but not without potential. Traders should watch key levels closely as the month unfolds.
