The debate began when crypto trader Nebraskangooner posted on X, highlighting what appears to be a double top formation — a pattern often considered bearish and a potential sign of a trend reversal. “Has anyone else noticed that the topping price action in 2021 looks the same as current price action?” he asked.
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen agreed, noting that Bitcoin tends to follow a similar rhythm in post-halving years: rallying in July and August, dipping in September, and surging into a potential market cycle top in Q4 before entering a bear market.
Charts vs. Fundamentals
However, not everyone is convinced that historical price patterns can dictate Bitcoin’s next move. Trader Kale Abe dismissed the idea, stating, “Charts and fractals don’t matter. The only thing that matters is whether treasury companies are out of ammo or not.”
Data from BitcoinTreasuries.net shows publicly traded Bitcoin treasury companies collectively hold around $150.98 billion worth of BTC. Abe believes this buying pressure changes the market dynamic entirely, making a repeat of the 2021 downturn unlikely, especially with Ethereum trading close to its all-time highs.
Ether has surged 19% in the past week, currently priced at $4,612, just 5.75% below its November 2021 record of $4,878. Abe argues that Bitcoin entering a bear market while Ethereum approaches its peak is “impossible.”
Skepticism from Veteran Traders
Veteran trader Peter Brandt also cautioned against over-reliance on charts, telling Cointelegraph Magazine:
“Anyone that looks at the charts and tries to tell you where anything is going is actually just kind of fooling themselves.”
According to Brandt, charts are best used to understand where the price has been and its current level — not to predict the future.
With opinions split between technical analysts and those focusing on institutional demand, the market awaits the next decisive move in Bitcoin’s price action.
