PlanB has admitted that its worst case scenario in terms of BTC price movements is about to turn out to be wrong for the first time. The analyst’s model predicted a price of $ 98,000 for the asset at the end of November, which seems a bit long at the moment.
PlanB’s worst-case scenario
CryptoPotato has previously reported on the accuracy of PlanB’s worst-case scenario (floor model), as he called it, which is distinct from the popular stock-flow model. However, he’s been pretty tough in the past because he’s been perfect for several consecutive months.
The prediction model saw bitcoin close at $ 47,000 at the end of August and drop to $ 43,000 at the end of September, which indeed happened. October was also close, as BTC closed the month at $ 61,000, while PlanB was considering $ 63,000. The anonymous analyst classified this minor difference as a “rounding error,” which was “good enough” for him.
During a recent podcast with the author of the Bitcoin Standard – Saifedean Ammous – PlanB pointed out the difference between the S2F model and its “worst case scenario”. Instead of BTC production and demand, the latter is more of a technical model, primarily based on the 200-day moving average.
Did you get it wrong for the first time?
Given the aforementioned accuracy of the model, many expected the November forecast price of $ 98,000 to materialize as well. Additionally, the current month is arguably the best in BTC history as the asset has produced some of its most impressive gains in previous years.
This November also started on a good note, as in the first few weeks the cryptocurrency skyrocketed to its latest all-time high of $ 69,000. However, the landscape changed after that, and BTC is now well below $ 60,000.
As such, bitcoin needs to increase its USD value by 65% to reach $ 98,000 from its current price point. Keeping in mind that there is less than a week to go until the end of November, PlanB admitted that this task could be too onerous, even for the main cryptocurrency.
However, the analyst pointed out that the stock-flow model is “unaffected” and is in fact on the verge of reaching $ 100,000.
Closing the soil model at $ 98,000 in November will likely be a first hiccup (having nailed August, September and October). S2F model unaffected and on track to $ 100K. pic.twitter.com/QO3bRUoGo3
– PlanB (@ 100trillionUSD) 25 November 2021
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