Some investors reacted angrily after PlanB admitted that its stock-flow model failed to accurately predict the price of bitcoin (BTC) for November.
The popular crypto analyst was targeting a BTC price of $ 98,000 for the end of this month. Just last week, he insisted that the price target was still possible, even if the markets were going down.
PlanB correctly predicted that BTC would hit $ 47,000 in August and $ 43,000 in September. He slightly missed the target of $ 63,000 for October, but said the “three percent rounding error was pretty close for me.”
Now the pseudonymous Dutch investor says his prediction of $ 98,000 for this month “will likely be a first failure”, according to to a tweet posted on November 25. He didn’t give an exact reason for the failure.
“I see this miss as an outlier, a black swan, which has not occurred in the data for the past 10 years,” he explained.
He spoke as the price of bitcoin hit $ 55,300 on November 23, down 20% from its record high of $ 69,000 on November 10. Some analysts attribute the drop to fears of impending Mt. Gox BTC redemptions.
Bitcoin’s “stock-to-flow model still on track to reach $ 100,000”
PlanB, which boasts 25 years of experience in the financial markets, is renowned for creating the stock-to-flow (S2F) price forecasting model. The model is based on the ratio of the current supply (stock) of an asset or commodity to its annual output (flow).
It can be applied to any asset with a limited supply, and the Dutch analyst did it with bitcoin in 2019. The idea is that since the supply of bitcoin decreases with each ‘reduction of half ”every four years, this will create boom and bust cycles. It then uses these cycles to forecast prices.
PlanB explained that the missed November target was only for the “floor model”, one of its three price forecasting tools. Unlike the S2F, the so-called floor model relies on price and on-chain data, he says.
He insisted that the stock-flow model had not been “affected and indeed [was] on track to $ 100,000.
Justin Stagner put the failure into perspective. “[It is] not like you narrowly missed it either. I mean, it looks like you really blew this one up, ”he said. declared.
Some investors have reacted angrily to PlanB’s admission of failure, blaming the crypto analyst for their financial losses.
“I used my student loans as well as a short term loan using my house as collateral to invest $ 68,000 because you told me it would be up to $ 98,000. Now I will be homeless and without a diploma… ” complained Twitter user Brett Lethbridge.
Another lamented: “Now your stock-to-flow model is no longer reliable. Most people have suffered heavy losses because of your prediction. “
However, several other people responded. forbidden PlanB, and even thanked him for his predictions. Often times they would revert by default to a familiar refrain, some sort of warning, that his forecast is “not financial advice.” Do your own research.
PlanB himself said:
It is indeed absurd that when you post information for free, people somehow hold you accountable for their investment decisions and actions. Everyone is responsible for their own (investment) decisions and actions. Blaming others is a sign of immaturity: NGMI (not going to make it).
The Dutch analyst has already been criticized. He is often accused of adjusting his price forecast downwards once it becomes clear that the S2F would miss its target and be invalidated.
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