According to global asset management company Alliance Bernstein, following the impending halving event, bitcoin’s positive trend should continue. “We believe that new demand catalysts lead to bitcoin price appreciation in every cycle,” stated the firm’s analysts.
Analysts at Alliance Bernstein, a global asset management company, discuss the price of bitcoin after its halving. On Wednesday, analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra sent out a note to clients outlining their thoughts on the matter. They penned:
After the halving, when mining hash rates have stabilized and ETF inflows have picked back up (after a negative to flat 10 days), we anticipate that bitcoin will resume its positive trend.
Furthermore, in our opinion, structural demand for bitcoin will be provided by the integration of spot bitcoin ETFs with wirehouses and RIAs (Registered Investment Advisors). By 2025, we still think bitcoin will reach a cycle high of $150,000,” the experts continued.
In November of last year, Bernstein made the prediction that by 2025, the price of bitcoin may reach $150,00. At the time, Chhugani said that his prediction was based on his expectation that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for spot bitcoin.
The Bernstein analysts claim that a price increase is not always the result of the Bitcoin halving event alone. They contend that the possible drop in miner selling pressure brought on by the post-halving reduction in block rewards is no longer a relevant consideration. They highlighted:
We think that in every cycle, the price of bitcoin increases due to fresh demand triggers.
According to the Bernstein analysts, historically, a breakout in the price of bitcoin has always occurred after the halving event, sometimes even several months later. But in the current cycle of 2024, the adoption of the ETFs in January caused a significant price increase prior to the halving (BTC has increased by 50% since reaching all-time highs). Bitcoin has only dropped by about 15% in the last ten days due to weaker ETF inflows and substantial GBTC selling.
“We could witness a more severe reduction in network hash rate if the price of bitcoin experiences a material drawdown, returning to $40,000 levels or below,” they said. “Given structural ETF demand is far from done, in our view ($12 billion actual inflow YTD vs. $80 billion inflow estimate over 2024–25), we believe the chances of this adverse scenario are lower.”
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