A tweet by Vetle Lunder, a senior analyst at K33 Research, has ignited passionate discussions among traders and enthusiasts. Lunder’s assertive statement suggests that the cryptocurrency market is currently undervaluing the transformative potential of U.S. Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Ethereum (ETH) futures-based ETFs. In this comprehensive examination, we will delve into Lunder’s five key points and their implications for the cryptocurrency market.
In this week’s Ahead of the Curve, we argued that BTC spot ETFs in the U.S. would amass at least 30k BTC worth of inflows in its first 10 days of trading, based on BITO launch flows and Purpose BTC’s inflows.
We also expect strong flows to ensue, with BTC investment vehicles… pic.twitter.com/dojuUEu9oZ
— Vetle Lunde (@VetleLunde) September 8, 2023
High Odds of U.S. Spot ETF Approval: Lunder’s first argument centers around the probability of U.S. Spot ETF approvals, which he contends have never been more favorable. He believes that this is the linchpin for a potential revolution in the cryptocurrency market.
BTC Trading Patterns Pre and Post BlackRock: Lunder highlights BTC’s price trajectory, noting that it has rebounded to pre-announcement levels following the involvement of the investment giant BlackRock. The market’s ability to endure significant news without severe disruption speaks volumes about its maturity.
Anticipated Inflows with Intense ETF Competition: The third point is particularly intriguing; Lunder anticipates intense competition and simultaneous launches of U.S. ETFs, with the potential for inflows surpassing those of BITO and Purpose during their initial trading days. He supports this claim with data on Purpose, which attracted 11,141 BTC in inflows, and BITO, which saw 19,425 BTC in its first ten days.
Correlation Between BTC Investment Flows and Prices: Lunder’s fourth assertion underscores the symbiotic relationship between BTC investment vehicle flows and BTC price trends. His data indicates that significant net inflows align with market strength, and substantial inflows notably boost BTC’s performance.
Potential Impact of ETF Approvals on BTC Price: Lunder’s final point is a projection of the potential impact of ETF approvals. He predicts that U.S. spot ETFs could accumulate at least 30,000 BTC in their initial 10 days of trading, potentially triggering a 66% BTC surge to $42,000. However, he acknowledges this as a “simplistic assumption” that doesn’t account for other market dynamics.
Lunder’s insights challenge the prevailing sentiment in the cryptocurrency market, which has been marked by a lackluster summer and recent sluggish momentum. He maintains an optimistic outlook, citing forthcoming ETF developments and the upcoming BTC halving, and views current levels as an opportunity for aggressive accumulation.
Lunder’s analysis underscores the importance of upcoming regulatory decisions and the potential for market-altering events that should not be underestimated. Traders and investors would be wise to closely monitor these developments in the months ahead.
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Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed by the author, or any people mentioned in this article, are for informational purposes only, and they do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice. Investing in or trading cryptoassets comes with a risk of financial loss.
